Your Substack engagement rates need attention
How to identify inactive subscribers even with Substack's limited tools
Hey, it's Pavel. Email Deliverability Expert helping email operators raise the bar for themselves and their teams. I'm building this newsletter for high-performing email marketers who want to stay ahead of the game. If you're serious about email deliverability, don't forget to subscribe.
Most Substack writers don't run winback campaigns. And it's hurting their engagement rates and conversion potential.
Your emails are getting delivered, but your engagement metrics are lower than they could be. When your subscriber list contains inactive users, your open rates get diluted. A 30% open rate might look average, but if you remove inactive subscribers, that same content could be hitting 50%+ with engaged readers.
In this edition, we'll cover winback campaigns and how to identify inactive subscribers on Substack. Here's what we're covering:
The Real Cost of Inactive Subscribers
Understanding Your Substack Analytics
The Substack Reality Check
How Morning Brew Does It Right
The 3 Segments You Need to Identify
What Are Winback Campaigns?
2. The Real Cost of Inactive Subscribers
Publications with fewer subscribers typically have higher open rates than those with many subscribers. This happens naturally as lists grow. But it also happens when you ignore list hygiene.
Inactive subscribers don't just hurt your metrics - they hide your wins. When you write about a topic your engaged readers love, you want to see that spike in your data. Clean lists make these insights obvious.
More importantly for Substack writers: accurate engagement data helps you identify which content drives paid conversions. If your free-to-paid conversion rate is low, inactive subscribers might be masking which posts actually work for converting readers.
If you're new here, you might want to browse through my previous editions first to get a sense of how I think about email deliverability and sender reputation.
Gmail's New Subscription Manager: What Email Marketers Need to Know
Why Your Emails Go to Spam and How to Build a Solid Reputation
3. Understanding Your Substack Analytics
Your Stats > Emails section shows you exactly which posts performed best. Sort by open rate to see which headlines grabbed attention. Sort by "Free subscriptions driven by the post" to see which content converts readers into subscribers.
But here's the problem: if 40% of your list is inactive, these numbers don't tell the real story. A post with a 25% open rate might actually be hitting 40%+ with engaged readers. You're making content decisions based on diluted data.
4. The Substack Reality Check
How Substack Handles Sending
Substack manages all email delivery through its shared sending infrastructure. By default, newsletters are sent from Substack's domains and warmed IP pools, so writers don't need to configure servers, IPs, or feedback loops.
Creators can optionally send from their own domain by adding SPF/DKIM records. In this case, Substack still handles the technical delivery, while authentication shows the sender's custom domain. Bounce handling and list hygiene are automated, ensuring strong inbox placement without manual setup.
This shared infrastructure means your deliverability benefits from Substack's established sender reputation and technical expertise. You don't need to worry about IP warming or domain reputation like you would with dedicated email platforms.
Substack doesn't have Beehiiv's automation or ConvertKit's advanced segmentation. List management requires more manual work.
But that's not an excuse to ignore engagement optimization. A smaller, engaged list outperforms a large, inactive one every time. Your open rates will be more accurate, and you'll get better insights into what content resonates with readers who actually convert to paid subscriptions.
Start with those three segments. Export the data monthly and make decisions based on engagement patterns. Use your Stats > Emails section to identify patterns - which posts got the highest open rates? Which topics drive the most engagement? Clean data helps you see these trends clearly.
5. How Morning Brew Does It Right
Morning Brew sends one of the best winback emails I've seen. They get straight to the point with three possible reasons why someone stopped reading:
"We're stuck in spam" - they acknowledge deliverability issues and tell subscribers how to fix them "It's not you, it's us" - they take responsibility for system problems and offer a way to confirm engagement "Life's happening" - they understand people get busy and provide an easy way to catch up
The key is they don't assume. They present options and let subscribers choose what fits their situation.
6. The 3 Segments You Need to Identify
Substack's filtering isn't as robust as dedicated email tools, but you can still identify the problem subscribers.
Segment 1: Users without opens in X days Anyone who hasn't opened an email in 6 months. Filter by engagement → "Has received > 12 emails and not opened". These people forgot you exist. Export their emails and either remove them or try one last re-engagement attempt.
Segment 2: The Never-Clickers Anyone who opened an email in 180 days but didn't click. Filter by engagement → "Has received > 12 emails open > 1 and 0 clicks". They're reading but not taking action. This could mean your calls-to-action aren't compelling enough, or your content isn't driving them toward paid subscriptions. These subscribers might engage differently than you think.
Segment 3: The Paying Ghosts Paid subscribers who stopped opening emails 30-60 days ago. Handle these carefully - they're still paying you. Send a personal check-in email before making any moves. Maybe they're busy, maybe your content shifted away from what they wanted.
7. What Are Winback Campaigns?
Winback campaigns target Substack subscribers who've become inactive. These are people who signed up for your newsletter but stopped engaging weeks or months ago.
Your emails are getting delivered just fine. The problem is that inactive subscribers are diluting your engagement metrics. When a large portion of your list isn't opening emails, your overall rates look worse than they actually are for engaged readers.
On Substack, open rates under 20% are poor, 30-50% is average, and above 50% is good. But these benchmarks become meaningless when inactive subscribers drag down your numbers. Your engaged readers might love your content, but you can't see it in the data.
Your goal isn't just subscriber count. It's meaningful engagement that leads to paid subscriptions. Clean, engaged lists give you accurate data about what content works and higher conversion rates from free to paid.
Thank you for this resource. Now I see that Substack has taken overall open rates off the main dashboard. My gut says this is because Substack is noticing a general downturn in engagement. My gut says that its app hasn’t helped either — bringing more people to the platform, but fewer people reading newsletters. This will affect delivery rates, too, I worry.